Webkinz giveaway night was uneventful. There were lines when the gates opened at 5:20, but they were gone in short order, and most of the 3,000 or so in attendance were gone by the time the game ended (9:30). I tried to convince Matt Hoover that I was only 14, but he didn't go for it. I'll be depressed for a week now. I really wanted that Webkinz.
Justin Wilson pitched a fantastic game in the BCB last night, going 6 innings with 7 strikeouts, yielding only 2 walks and 3 hits. He gave up one run in the top of the first on a double by Cesar Nicolas, and then wiped Erie out for the following five innings. That's the good news.
The bad news is, that one run was all Erie needed.
They scored two more off Corey Hamman and Mike Dubee in the top of the ninth, just to be sure, but Brooks Brown finished what Dwayne Below started and the Curve were shut out for the first time this season, 3-0.
Dwayne Below entered this game 1-3 with an ERA north of 5, so I was expecting to see a shootout, something like 9-6. Instead I was treated to the best pitchers' duel I've seen so far in 2010. Below was especially impressive. Working with a slightly odd delivery with a straight overhand arm slot, a low-90s fastball and a curveball, Below dominated Altoona hitters for five innings. The most impressive thing about Below was, the man pounded the strike zone. Strike after strike after strike after strike, and these were hardly meatballs; the Curve couldn't hit him. Below opened the game with nine straight strikes, and at another point threw 12 straight strikes.
In the Eastern League, that's a revelation; I don't think I've ever seen a pitcher crank out strikes like that at the BCB before, except a couple of the uber-prospects like Matusz. There are pitchers that have superb control, but walk four or five batters a game anyway because their stuff isn't very good and they have to nibble around the corners and try to get hitters to swing at stuff outside the strike zone.
Below also--and this is very rare in AA ball--threw his curve for strikes, over and over. Now, that will get you killed in the major leagues unless you're Bert Blyleven, but a pitcher who can fire strikes like that and aim his curveball is a pitcher worth watching. Below is 24, old for AA ball, but I suspect if his arm holds together you might see him pitching well in a major league bullpen near you within a year or two.
I say bullpen because, despite throwing only 63 pitches over 5 innings--amazing how you can keep your pitch count down when you throw strikes--Below crumbled in the sixth, losing the strike zone and looking tired through his delivery. That his future is in the bullpen seems given, and I'm curious why the Tigers haven't already moved him there with an eye toward fast tracking him to the major leagues. You might have heard that the Tigers have had some bullpen issues.
It's a shame that Justin Wilson pitched so well and has nothing to show for it; after getting rocked early, his last two starts he's started to show the promise that had people excited about him. I should be seeing him again Wednesday against the helpful Senators lineup.
One more thing before I go: The score was 1-0 after eight innings. I'm sure Matt Walbeck had a good reason to leave Corey Hamman in for the ninth, but I don't know what it was; Hamman was tired after two innings and Mike Dubee was fresh. Hamman struck two SeaWolves out anyway, but mixed that with hitting Mike Beltram in the head (he was okay) and walking glove man Cale Iorg on four pitches. Then Dubee entered and picked up where Hamman left off, walking Shawn Roof, who frankly couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat, on five pitches, three of them in the dirt, loading the bases, and then yielding the world's most predictable two-run single on a 3-1 count to Jeff Burrus.
Now, suppose the Curve had scored two runs in the ninth inning. Final score, 3-2, Erie. Which pitcher do you think is the Losing Pitcher? Corey Hamman, who put the team in a jam? Or Mike Dubee, who walked the #9 hitter and allowed a two-run single? I'm sure you know the 'correct' answer is C: Justin Wilson, who pitched six dominant innings. Apparently it's his fault that (a) the hitters didn't hit until the ninth inning, and (b) the bullpen gave up a couple runs. The rulebook says, if you leave trailing and the team never regains the lead, you get the loss, period.
Well, you're smart, so you immediately see the problem there. Wins is a stat designed in the 19th century, when a pitcher not finishing a game he started was extremely unusual, even if the game went 16 innings. The statistic has been obsolete now for 30 years. There are a few sensible ways it could be tweaked--I wrote up one myself last year that I like--but there are two problems:
(a) We've been recording Wins and Losses exactly the same way for 120 years now, and nobody's anxious to change their definition now.
(b) Even if we improved it, it still wouldn't be terribly useful. Just quote the guy's ERA and strikeout/walk ratio, and you'll do much better at describing his work's quality than any wins-losses system will.
Therefore, I suggest the wisest course is to retire the statistic. Actually, I suspect it would already be on its way to extinction if not for fantasy baseball usually incorporating it. So start there: suggest to whatever fantasy league you're in that situations like last night happen all the time, that they're grossly unfair to the real players and to fantasy teams, and therefore your league should ditch wins-losses and use something else.
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